Poor Tommy...

Mpetshi back with a defeat decided by a single point, then a rather good Opelka here for his first match. As my father would say: dura lex, sex lex!

Maybe now’s the time to take a shot on the American, who’s going to do everything he can not to repeat the mistakes he made against Mpetshi? Ugh, I’ll be 100% honest with you: I can’t be bothered to bet on that kind of guy. I get why some people say you have to bet on Opelka as an underdog, but for me it’s more complicated than that. The guy’s playing Sinner, there’s no way I’m betting on him. Maybe I’m wrong. But there are matches I like less than others, and constantly checking whether the odds are well set or not, that’s our job. He can be an underdog without being value. I remember Mpetshi against Seyboth Wild, for example. The Brazilian handled the situation perfectly. Here, we’ve got Paul coming back. Last season it took him a bit of time to get back to his level. Well, like 2 weeks, before he started playing really well at the Australian Open. Don’t forget that’s the main goal for these top players. On the other side, Opelka has played 3 matches, 7 sets, 4 break points faced, zero breaks conceded. Brisbane, Adelaide, the conditions are perfect for him. Is his 2.45 price value? I have no idea… Apart from Majchrzak, the American giant hasn’t really played a guy with great returning quality yet. And there’s always at least one game where he makes 1 or 2 stupid errors. Plus, Paul moves really well, so it’s harder to pull off ‘hold ups’ on his return games by just hammering forehand missiles. Honestly, I don’t think it’s really worth dwelling on this one…