A nasty habit

Agut lost in the first round of the Australian Open in the last two years against two left-handers; here’s a third one to break the streak?

Shelton and Shapovalov… you can’t really say Agut has been lucky with the draws here in recent years. On top of that, the Spaniard doesn’t like this kind of profile, he struggles on return and against the intensity/pace they bring. Shang is exactly the same type of player, his serve is a bit weaker than theirs but he plays at a crazy tempo and seems to be quite a favorite in this match-up. He’s coming off a very good tournament in Hong Kong that even earned him compliments from his executioner Bublik; the Kazakh said that with that level (in the second set) he could easily reach the top 20. I completely agree and a lot of people will join me on that because, basically, when he’s not injured Shang has always shown huge potential and right now he seems to be at 100% (or at least 90%, with one foot we’re keeping an eye on). His start to the season is very encouraging, all the lights are green.

I’d say Agut has a few warning lights on orange. The Spaniard is coming back from injury and was playing his first match in Auckland since the US Open, and you could really feel it! Okay, it was Mpetshi on the other side of the net so it was hard to find any rhythm, but he really got outplayed in the rallies and looked rusty, and the few long points seemed to make him suffer as well. He’s a true professional, but his game is ultra-dependent on his physical condition and the guy is 37 now, almost 38! This kind of long format is going to get harder and harder for him, ESPECIALLY now during a comeback phase. I’m not writing him off, but I think it’s going to take him a few weeks to really get the engine going.

So yeah, you get the idea, I’m really not optimistic for the Spaniard at all. Do the odds reflect that?