Do we take the risk?

Fonseca has a back injury and still doesn’t seem sure whether he can/wants to play this tournament.

The Brazilian hasn’t been very reassuring in his recent statements: he says he’s not yet at 100% and hopes to be for the Australian Open, that no decision has been made… Given his entourage and the very professional way he approaches his career, I’m convinced that if he’s not fully ready, he won’t play; they won’t take the risk, especially with the Golden Swing coming up, and we know how important that is for him. So I’m assuming that if he does play, he’ll be fit. And that works out well because he’s facing a player who’s really on the rise, a real little trap especially in a first round, namely Mr. Spizzirri. The American impressed me again in Auckland; he only messed up his match against Marozsan but the rest was excellent. He really has what it takes to climb the rankings given how complete his game is. He, on the other hand, is match-ready, confident, and ready to fight to reach the second round.

They’ve already played each other at the 2024 US Open in the qualifying rounds and Spizzirri won. Granted, Fonseca was even younger then and still in full development; now he’s coming in as a top 25 player, things have changed. In terms of match-up, it’s supposed to be a good baseline match with rhythm and plenty of intensity. I think they enjoy playing each other given the quality of ball they both produce and their profiles. Fonseca seems capable of winning points more easily, whether through power or by following up to the net, but I currently give the edge in patience/solidity to Spizzirri. As I said, it’s a big test for Fonseca right away: his first match of the season with a disrupted preparation and physical issues that still seem to be there a few days/hours before the match. This doesn’t bode well for the Brazilian in my opinion.