Advantage France?

The duel between Humbert and Davidovich Fokina, scheduled for tonight, promises fireworks. Two talented players, capable of very intense phases of play, but coming into this semifinal with noticeably different dynamics. And several factors, in my view, argue in favor of Humbert.

Ugo Humbert made a strong statement in his quarterfinal against Alexander Shevchenko. A quick win, 6–0 6–3, wrapped up in under an hour, which says a lot about his current level of play. The Frenchman dominated in every area: quality of serve, aggression on return, cleanliness in the rallies, and a constant ability to take control of the points. A real masterclass against a Shevchenko who had a bit less energy after a run of matches. The ideal match before a big semifinal: little time spent on court, plenty of confidence built up, and an overall feeling of total control.

For his part, ADF qualified by beating Vacherot. A logical win, but clearly more hard-fought, especially in the first set, which he took in a tie-break. The Spaniard then rolled through the second set, but he still had to work a lot harder than Humbert. Vacherot plays much slower than Ugo, especially on the forehand side, and that allowed ADF to take control of the rallies once he managed to get into them, which should be much less the case against the Frenchman.

On a fast surface, Humbert has some real weapons. His serve is effective, his left-handed game opens up the court nicely, and he’s increasingly consistent when it comes to taking the initiative. Up against a Davidovich Fokina who likes to dictate play and not really be on the back foot, the Frenchman has what it takes. They have a relatively similar style of play, but I feel the Frenchman is capable of getting the upper hand as the one who plays faster of the two.

As a small additional argument, Ugo will face Shelton in the first round of the AO, a horrible draw, whereas ADF has a much easier path. So the match takes on relatively greater importance for the Frenchman, because his prospects for next week are much less clear.