The 4 in a row?

3 matches between these two and not a single set won by the Australian, is it going to continue?

Frances Tiafoe remains the logical favorite in this matchup, but the scenario might be less one-sided than expected. The American comes in with more power and a clear ability to make the difference on serve, but he often goes through matches with looser phases, especially against supposedly weaker opponents.

Jason Kubler, for his part, doesn’t have the weapons to dominate Tiafoe over the long haul, but his profile as a solid, combative player can allow him to stay in touch. In his recent tournaments, the Australian has shown that he knows how to hang in rallies and take advantage of opponents’ lapses, especially against players who can be inconsistent in their intensity. He’s coming off good qualifying rounds, somewhat unexpectedly, given he ended last season injured and hadn’t played a warm-up tournament. That leaves a bit of uncertainty about his ability to go the distance in a best-of-five format.

In this context, Kubler can certainly take a set, or even push Tiafoe into a tie-break or a tight set, without necessarily having the consistency required to turn the match around. Tiafoe should eventually take control thanks to his quality of serve and his ability to step it up in key moments.

The most credible scenario therefore remains a Tiafoe victory, but with real resistance from Kubler, particularly at the start of the match or over a set.