Fokina's Chance?

The American has won all four meetings against the Spaniard...

All meetings have been on hardcourt, twice in the Australian Open, once in the US Open, and once in Miami. Paul has been dominant in all but the first match in the Australian Open 2023, which was an absolute "banger". When they faced last year in AO, Paul won 6-1, 6-1, 6-1... with Fokina having absolutely zero energy after playing a five-setter against Auger-Aliassime and then Mensik (emotional comeback win against Mensik). This time, at least, he only had one five-setter against Opelka. Yes, that match turned out more dramatic than it first looked like it would... Fokina not only had to battle the giant American on the other side, but was also dealing with some bettors heckling him. If you watch his reaction when he wins the match, you will see what I mean! Paul will be coming into the match fresher, having had two quick, straight-set wins in favorable matchups against Kovacevic and Tirante (very good performances from him, regardless).

As for the matchup, it has the potential to be a fun one, with two profiles that are actually really similar. Both players are extremely athletic, great shotmakers, and all-court players. I would say the weakness for both is their tendency to have dips in their play where they become really erratic... but Paul has not had that yet this tournament at all, and Fokina has also improved in his consistency in the last year. Let's not forget that Paul has been out with injury for a while, also, this will be his biggest test since his match against an in-form Machac in Adelaide! There must obviously be something that makes Paul very comfortable in this matchup, and it will be interesting to see what approach Fokina takes to try to change the outcome this time. Perhaps just playing his normal game as the "improved version" of himself will be enough...?