Unbalanced?

Zverev seems to have started strong, will he confirm it against Norrie?

In this match, it’s hard not to see Alexander Zverev going in with a clear advantage over Cameron Norrie, as both the current momentum and playing styles strongly lean in favor of the German.

Zverev has been quite disappointing in 2025 overall, but I find his level of play interesting at this AO despite two solid tests. He’s shown great solidity: few lapses, constant intensity, and above all an ability to impose his tempo right from the start of the rallies. His serve remains a major weapon, with a high first-serve percentage and lots of free points.

Opposite him, Cameron Norrie is a brave, combative player, but he clearly shows his limits against big powerful servers when he’s not in exceptional form, which is the case right now with a rather average start to the season and start to the tournament. His game is based on consistency, defense, and the ability to force the opponent to hit one more shot. But against Zverev, this plan rarely works: the German is now very solid from the baseline, more patient than before, comfortable in long rallies while also being able to come forward and finish points.

From a tactical standpoint, the match‑up is also favorable to Zverev. Norrie’s heavy lefty topspin forehand, often effective at causing problems, has less impact against a tall player who hits flat and takes the ball early. Zverev can easily dictate the rally in the backhand crosscourt, before opening up the court on the forehand side. On top of that, the difference in power is significant, which forces Norrie to defend constantly, with few chances to take the initiative. The H2H is 6–1 for Zverev, with the last 6 going his way in matches that were sometimes tight but in which he eventually found the solution.

Under these conditions, we can expect more of a match controlled by the German than a real battle. Norrie can hang onto a few games thanks to his fighting spirit, but over the distance, Zverev’s superiority should show without too many scares in my opinion.