How Long Can Mensik Keep Going?

At least he had a nice and short match against Jodar...

It's not easy coming from a title in the ATP 250 that is prior to the Grand Slam and then being able to follow it up. This was definitely true for Mensik, as Carreno-Busta gave him a huge fight, unless he had a nice comeback win, slightly aided by some physical struggles for PCB in the fifth set. There were huge doubts about his ability to follow this up in his next match against Jodar, which was reflected in his 1.55 ML odds. However, he managed it rather easily and without wasting time. Now, he should be able to recover for his next match, right? Well, it's not always that easy. It's quite common to see a good match right after a big battle; players tend to play a bit more with "nothing to lose" in the next round. Sometimes, the issue is following up in the round after that. Quinn is coming into this match rather fresh. No major runs in tournaments before the Australian Open, and then two very efficient straight-set wins against Griekspoor and Hurkacz! It has to be said that his opponents were not playing at their best, but make sure not to take anything away from Quinn - he's been really good!

As you can tell by the scorelines in the two previous Mensik vs Quinn matches, this is a matchup that really favours Mensik. He absolutely loves one-dimensional attacking baseliners where his serve is better than theirs, and he can just absorb their pace from their baseline. While a matchup is very important in tennis, we have to look at some other factors here. It's going to be very hot on Saturday (still don't know exactly what time they play, but it's going to be throughout the entire session) - I really don't like this for Mensik, with the amount of matches in his legs already. Quinn is more used to hot weather and should be able to handle it better. Let's also take into account that he just won in straight sets against a profile that is very similar to Mensik (Big Server / Solid Baseliner) - Hurkacz! Both of them have huge serves and like to play consistent tennis from the baseline, without being overly attacking. I found Quinn's returning to be of high quality in this match, a lot of nice chip/block returns that were really effective against one of the better servers. Also, his normally weaker backhand held up surprisingly well, which is a key factor for him against Mensik as well. These are all the positives for Quinn, but we can't stray away from the fact that Mensik will have a big advantage if he is not physically compromised here. However, just a slight drop in his energy/level will be dangerous, since Quinn will be able to dictate efficiently with his huge forehand, something he did very well against Hurkacz. Can you see where I'm going...?