Memories, memories...

Wow, what a match already between the two biggest grinders in the world! I’m already licking my lips...

And yes, everyone remembers that banger between the two guys in the second round of AO25. We didn’t really know this Learner Tien back then, and everyone thought Daniil was going to eat him alive, even being down 2 sets to 0, and even in the super tie-break. Well, he didn’t! And do you know why? First, because Tien is just straight-up good. But also, and above all, because he has a game that really bothers Daniil. He also reads trajectories super well, he also stands 3 meters behind the baseline on return, he also can keep the ball in play 50 times in a rally without making errors, making you move, and for 5 hours straight... Daniil himself admitted that he really bothered him. By the way, their next two matches both went to 3 sets, with one win each.

Let’s not ring the alarm bells too loudly either. Daniil comes in with 8 wins and no losses on the board. He really struggled against Halys and especially Marozsan. In his defense, they were seriously good. Should we still see worrying signs there? His last two matches followed the same script at the start. He plays a decent first set and gets pipped at the post, then collapses at the beginning of the second. His reaction takes time to come, but it does come. If I had to sum up his current state, I’d say he plays well in phases, but can’t manage to sustain his very high level for an entire match. We’re not seeing “prime” Daniil, and seeing how he ended up pretty exhausted against Marozsan, I think there’s a decent chance he’ll be up and down again today, even though he knows he can’t afford any slip-ups against Tien and will come in even more focused.

So I’d say that not only, structurally, this match screams “over” with a similar level of play, similar style, and a tricky match-up, but on top of that, the favorite of the two has already spent quite a bit on court. I know, it’s Daniil. The marathon man, the guy with three lungs. And sure, he might very well find his serving quality again. But Tien returns him well, and in the rallies they both struggle to hit through each other. It’s going to be physical, guys... Of course there’s a scenario where Daniil plays it perfectly by switching patterns of play, up against a Tien who drops back to the poor level he had a few days/weeks ago. But this is a Grand Slam, both of them will be at their max.