Now Comes the Real Test

Let's see how deep Bublik is willing to dig...

There were some question marks for Bublik heading into the Australian Open, a tournament where he has not performed well in the past, voicing a dislike for the weather (similar to the US hardcourt season). Well, here we are, in the fourth round - yet to drop a set. His last match against Etcheverry was a real serve-fest with just a single break the entire match, and while he voiced his frustrations about it in Russian, he was the one who could peak in the tiebreaks - especially against an Etcheverry who is more of a specialist in keeping a good and balanced level. De Minaur is having a strong run himself, coming off a solid straight-sets win against an improved Tiafoe. Bublik and ADM had two great matches last year, in Roland Garros and on indoor hardcourt in Paris - with Bublik winning both of them in deciding sets.

Thankfully, it looks like the weather will cool down a bit - we're looking at temperatures in the low 20's for this match. Wind will slightly pick up and could become at least a minor factor. It will be played as the last match in the session, so we can expect slower conditions. Initially, it seems like this will favor ADM, right? Well, while it makes him harder to hit through, it also makes him a bit more vulnerable - he does not have the best ability to generate pace himself, and his serve becomes more exposed as well! Bublik can hit winners, even against such a mobile opponent in slightly slower conditions. Quite frankly, this might not be as bad a matchup for Bublik as many might expect - especially the new version of him, that is far more patient and willing to suffer ;) I would also say that Bublik's fitness tends to be a bit underrated sometimes, so I'm not sure how easy it is for ADM to make this into a long fatigue battle - Bublik is coming in rather "fresh" as well. I have liked ADM's level a lot in his matches, but this will be a different test for him - we have seen many times how he dominates certain matches, but then looks a bit underpowered on court in the next against a different kind of opponent. Bublik can really make this competitive or even win, as long as he keeps his emotions in check and does not let the crowd get to him or reverts to his old habits and "checks out"...