Djoko’s year?

For the past two years, the Serb hasn’t stopped telling us that he can compete with the big two, but that he always shows up too physically worn out. With Mensik’s withdrawal and no sets lost, we might be getting a “prime” version of the Serb today against Musetti...

And yes, Novak is one match away from Sinner, his biggest challenge. He’s not going to underestimate Musetti. Ever. But given that we’re at the Australian Open, the Serb’s favourite tournament (10 titles here, let me remind you), on top of that Djoko is in the best possible physical condition. You know, it makes me think of their meeting in Miami in 2025. Loré was really starting to get good on hard, some very promising matches in the tournament, a bit of hope before the match against Djoko anyway, and then… it was a destruction without lube. “And then there was Greece” (whoever finds which movie that line is from has my respect for life). Their most recent match in Athens was of incredible quality. For me, it’s more representative of what could happen today, because it factors in Loré’s huge progress on hard (Djoko will pay tribute to him in his speech). So we’ll have, in my view, a ‘prime’ Djoko AND a ‘prime’ Loré. Which version is better now?

The first set Loré won in Athens was truly incredible. Djoko was stunned. And it took at least that level for him to take it 6–4. Loré can reproduce that level, even more so after putting on a serving masterclass against Fritz. But can he sustain it for 3, 4 or 5 sets? He’s coming in a bit more physically worn, relative of course to his overall physical condition, which is now better than Djoko’s. But above all, in terms of match‑up, this match will look more like the one against Collignon than the one against Machac. An incredible strategic battle here, with a Djoko who will be a lot less aggressive than the Czech. And in terms of strategy, I’m wondering if it’s even possible to do better than Djoko…

So this match brings together two players who know each other inside out, who respect each other, and whose gap in level on hard is closing. Enough to see Loré go through? It’s possible. The hardest part of this analysis for me is managing to detach myself from the aura the Serb has rightly built at the Australian Open. I can just as easily see myself sitting in front of the match thinking, “it was obvious, Djoko at the AO with his tennis IQ and his fitness…”, as I can see myself saying, “it was obvious, Djoko has an incredible history here but his level just isn’t the same anymore.”

If I had to decide, and that’s my role here, I’d say that Loré now has the level required to put Djoko in a match where he has to manage his hot and cold patches. In other words, he’ll probably need to weather the Italian storm for at least one set, before emerging the winner from this chess match. Novak steamrolled Lehecka and Machac last year, but their profiles are way too different from Musetti’s. My prediction here would be Djoko in 4 or 5, but I’m not sure his ML has any value…