Banger?

Between Zverev’s huge serve and Alcaraz’s exceptional level, the semi-final looks set to be long and hard-fought, perfect for scenarios packed with games right from the first set.

Could this finally be the long-awaited banger in this dismal tournament devoid of any exciting matches?

This match between Alcaraz and Zverev looks like it will be a much closer contest than the odds suggest, let me explain why.

Certainly, Alcaraz has impressed since the beginning of the tournament with his ability to stifle his opponents and impose a very high pace, but Zverev is in my opinion of another caliber and this profoundly changes the reading of the match.

Zverev enters this match with a real mental fortitude and a confidence in his game and intentions that hasn't been seen in a long time. Without being flashy, he has shown great consistency in his commitment, particularly on his service games, where his first serve remains a major asset on hard courts. Against Alcaraz, he knows he can't win a match by simply reacting. His objective will clearly be to hold his serve, extend the rallies when the opportunity arises, and force the Spaniard to produce consistently clean tennis. He has also added some variety to his game and a touch of aggression, which is essential against top-level players. Everything is in his favor, and we expect a big match from him.

Alcaraz, for his part, certainly has the ability to catch fire and string games together, but against Zverev, it is a matter of maintaining that level of performance throughout a match that is not easy, especially in 5 sets.

Their shared history shows balanced confrontations with a 6/6 H2H record, although Carlos has sometimes easily dominated the German.

I expect a very close match, especially if the German player replicates the quality of his serve from recent matches. I imagine the first set should particularly illustrate this dynamic. In a Grand Slam semi-final, both players generally approach the start of the match with great caution. Zverev will primarily focus on establishing his serve and avoiding any excessive risks on the return. Alcaraz, on the other hand, often observes the initial rotations before gradually increasing the intensity. This phase of mutual observation makes a short set unlikely and makes over 10.5 games in the first set particularly plausible, especially at odds above 3.

Throughout the match, even if Alcaraz is expected to win eventually, it's difficult to imagine a quick victory. Zverev has the tools to take at least one set, and perhaps even push the match further, in my opinion. A four-set match is more than enough to validate over 37 games in the vast majority of cases, which is why I suggested this bet last night. The context, the level of both players, and their mutual respect on the court all point to a close, intense, and drawn-out encounter.