Who has the advantage over the other?

Cobolli is often much better than Nardi on the main tour, but in the head-to-head it's Nardi who is ahead. Why is that?

3/1 Nardi against Cobolli, I’m going to talk about their last two meetings because I watched them. The first was in Auckland, Cobolli was fed up with the conditions and a bit injured (not that much, it was mostly an excuse to retire), he didn’t really feel like fighting since the following week was the Australian Open. The second match was in Rome and there, big surprise, Nardi coolly handled Cobolli and could hardly believe it himself. I get the feeling that every time they play, Cobolli kind of misses his match and Nardi plays better than usual. That’s exactly what could happen again, with Nardi coming off a Challenger final and arriving in good form, while Cobolli is coming from a first‑round loss at the Australian Open where he was sick.

Cobolli hasn’t been good at the start of this year, even his United Cup matches weren’t convincing, he’s tight and nervous on court, the version of him we don’t want to see. Last year he hit a wall several times in terms of motivation; I’m not saying that’ll be the case again here, but it’s still an ATP 250 in a kind of dull, not very exciting period. In other words, I’m waiting to see what he has to offer tomorrow before I decide whether to trust him or not. What I’m sure of is that Nardi is moving well and is more likely to perform.