Outsider, really?

Value on Kovacevic in my opinion, let me explain.

In this main-draw duel at the ATP 250 in Montpellier, Titouan Droguet (No. 150) faces Aleksandar Kovacevic (No. 83), and while the bookmakers see the Frenchman as a slight favorite, the odds around 2.10/2.15 on the American look interesting here.

In terms of ranking and experience, Kovacevic has a clear edge: 83rd in the world compared to 150th for Droguet, and much broader experience on the ATP Tour, which shows in his ability to handle high-pressure matches against tough opponents. Unlike Droguet, who plays almost exclusively on the Challenger circuit, Kovacevic has already reached the final of this tournament in Montpellier in 2025, which demonstrates his ability to perform well here.

The recent head-to-head, however, tilts in favor of Droguet, who beat him a few days ago at the Quimper Challenger in two tight sets (7-6, 7-6). Droguet saved set points in both sets in a very hard-fought match. This obviously shows that the Frenchman is not an insurmountable obstacle, and underlines a tight balance of power between the two players. But this result does not erase Kovacevic’s overall progress this season, as he also won his previous match in Montpellier after losing the first set, coming back strongly in the next two.

As for recent form trends, Droguet has shown consistency in Montpellier with convincing wins in qualifying and positive momentum, but Kovacevic has also been impressive at the start of this season, notably with a nice run in Brisbane in fast conditions, and I really liked how he raised his level yesterday.