The magic of ATP 500s

It’s only in these tournaments that you can get first rounds like this.

Humbert vs Medvedev, a gem for a R1. Daniil is playing his first indoor match in a tournament where he’s had mixed fortunes, a title in 2023 but also several early exits, including another one last year against Bellucci. Humbert, for his part, lost an almost unlosable match to Mannarino in Montpellier and he’ll have to make up for it as early as this week, in conditions that are theoretically very good for him.

The H2H is in Ugo’s favor and that only half-surprises me. Daniil excels on the counter and manages to drag players into his kind of match. With Ugo it’s different, because the Frenchman questions himself much less than other players, he’s offensive, period, and he’s obviously capable of doing it much better than the vast majority of players on tour.

I found him a bit disappointing in Montpellier, but facing Manna is good training before going up against the premium version with Daniil.

So we more or less know which Ugo to expect. With Daniil, it’s a bit less clear. He was excellent in Brisbane all week before being much more labored at the AO, with a complicated tournament from start to finish.