A surprising advantage

Altmaier leads 3–1 in the H2H and on top of that, all their matches have been on clay!

Surprising, because JM Cerundolo is a real pain to play on clay and on top of that Altmaier doesn’t really like that kind of profile. I see two points that explain this: first, the German’s experience and his higher level of play. He just plays better tennis than Cerundolo; the Argentine isn’t very gifted and has to fight with the weapons he’s got. Then most of their matches were on European clay courts; we know how different South American clay is, and I seriously think that playing in Buenos Aires is going to drastically change what we might see in this match.

JM Cerundolo already has a few clay matches in his legs; it wasn’t great in Rosario last week but he’s going to build up form. With his lefty touch and the weight he puts into his shots, Altmaier is in for a bit of a nightmare. The crowd will be on the Argentine’s side, as will the heavy clay in Buenos Aires.

The other decisive factor is Altmaier’s form: he comes in without a single win this year and he’s already taken four 6–0 sets!! He hasn’t had easy draws, but it’s the way the matches played out that worries me; he wasn’t involved at all. Is playing in 30-degree heat in a big trap against a local guy really going to motivate him? I’m more afraid he’ll completely lose it at some point.