A first for Pavlovic

VDZ must avoid the French trap at home

On paper, the matchup between Botic Van de Zandschulp and Luka Pavloviclooks one-sided. Yet this kind of first-round indoor match often turns out to be trickier than it seems, especially in a setting like Rotterdam.

Van de Zandschulp comes in with a clear favorite status. A regular on tour, he has real experience at big indoor tournaments, a solid baseline game, and the ability to stay in rallies without falling apart. His tennis, while not dazzling, is structured, reliable, and particularly effective when the pace is high. VDZ hasn’t had much success here at home in recent years, but he lost to Alcaraz/Sinner and Medvedev, which is no easy task. V

On the other side, Pavlovic is discovering this level. Coming from the qualifiers, he’s just pulled off two huge wins and will be playing his very first match on the main tour. The Frenchman is playing without pressure, with the energy of someone who has nothing to lose. His ranking still reflects a lack of references at this level, but his recent momentum is positive and his adjustment to indoor conditions is promising. He relies on a big serve, and in his baseline game he doesn’t have a single massive shot, but he’s capable of mixing things up a lot.

The scenario will largely depend on VDZ’s ability to impose his game plan from the start. If he manages to return well and force Pavlovic into rallies, the gap in consistency should quickly widen. For Pavlovic, the plan is clear: play fast, serve big, shorten the points, and try to create a battle of force right away. A good first set is essential if he wants to exist in this match. If he lets Van de Zandschulp settle in, the gap should logically be too big to bridge.