Ostabâche or Ostaprime?

To understand Ostapenko’s current form, you have to go back to her first-round match against Anastasia Zakharova. Down 7-6, 3-1, Jeļena put on a full show of theatrics after a line-call decision on a ball mark. She yelled at the umpire, complained about the wind, and looked ready to throw the match away before miraculously finding some kind of rhythm again and somehow managing to turn her frustration into a weapon! Osta is very unstable, but her prime version is unplayable. Iga, the Polish queen, can testify to that ^^!

For her part, Alexandrova left some feathers on the court, especially mentally, in her final lost to Sara Bejlek three days ago. Although she was a heavy favorite, she seemed unable to react to the Czech’s slices and consistency, collapsing completely in the second set (6-1). She’s far from arriving in Doha with the certainty of a boss; she looked like she still has plenty of room for improvement and, above all, gets irritated very quickly when she runs out of answers. She thus confirmed her stat of losses in outdoor finals since 2022, which is starting to look like a real glass ceiling.

The match is almost entirely in Ostapenko’s racket. Although the odds heavily favor Alexandrova, the reality on court shows two players full of doubt. The head-to-head is very balanced (6–5 for Ostapenko), and their last meeting was a show of strength from the Latvian. The forecast conditions are ideal, with no wind to bother Osta. We shouldn’t forget that Jeļena is defending a huge amount of points here, having reached the final in the previous edition, which adds extra pressure and/or motivation on Jelena’s shoulders!