Two all, back to square one

Past matches have logically been focused on service games. What will make the difference today?

The difference for me will come down to three areas here. 1. The return. In a match focused on service games, the quality of the return is of course essential, and Taylor Fritz showed increasingly strong returning against Giron in his first-round match. 2. Handling the big moments. That’s what allowed Nakashima to win in two sets, and what helped Fritz beat Giron in the deciding tie-break. Once again, I see Fritz as slightly better in this department, since I think he’s in good form. 3. Rally solidity. And here, even though Nakashima has improved in this area, Fritz is still a reference point. Especially since, when he can, like against Giron, he’s able to be consistent while still being aggressive. So I think Fritz’s ML at 1.7 is high because the market is afraid of his knee injury. Yet during his R1, he wasn’t really affected, and in his interview he said it wasn’t related to the tendinitis he picked up in Australia, and that it was something minor. I might be wrong, because maybe once he cooled down his knee started hurting, but I see this price more as an opportunity than as a risk.