King Carabelli

Unloved by the market, Carabelli is systematically put down as an outsider at the moment, even though the guy is playing at an exceptional level.

After his title in Rosario there were a few doubts about whether the Argentine could handle the physical and mental sequence; last year he simply lost in the first round here because he was completely exhausted. This season he arrived in better shape to back it up, he had to battle less in Rosario to begin with, and I also think he’s gained experience since then—he manages himself better! In any case, he’s not showing any signs of fatigue in his matches, quite the opposite, he’s the more solid one every time. Yesterday he scared himself at the finish against Navone, but in terms of level it was incredible up to 6/2 5/2, he absolutely reeks of confidence. He doesn’t turn down any rally, he slices well to break up the rhythm, and as soon as he can dictate with his forehand it’s great. His limit in this tournament will be the physical side because I find him perfect in everything else. The level of opposition is going up again with Báez, the other Argentine is kind of the king of the Golden Swing every time.

This season he’s coming in with good feelings and strong confidence, but his first round was pretty average—good thing Buse was spent. He’s going to raise the intensity and become harder and harder to beat, but I still see the more recent form being on Carabelli’s side. Even being that far behind in the head-to-head, there are a lot of matches lost in three sets, it’s never a walk in the park for Báez. I find it hard to imagine a one-sided match; we’re in for a big battle, and even if Báez has the edge over the long haul, he can still get caught out.