The defending champion is back, but with some question marks

Rublev the logical favorite against a struggling De Jong

Andrey Rublev makes his return to ATP Doha as the defending champion. A status that naturally puts him among the favorites, all the more so as the playing conditions generally suit his tennis, which is based on intensity and taking the ball early.

The head-to-head clearly leans in favor of the Russian. The H2H is 1–0 for him, with a very easy win against Jesper De Jong, without any real resistance. On paper, the gap in level is still obvious, especially in terms of power and the ability to impose a high tempo.

That said, De Jong does have some arguments of his own. His start to the season has admittedly been complicated in terms of results, but the level of play is definitely there. In Rotterdam, in front of his home crowd, he put up an interesting fight against Karen Khachanov, showing he was capable of holding his own in rallies and competing in certain phases against a top-tier player. Confidence may not be at its peak, but the overall performance is far from alarming.

On Rublev’s side, this start to the season has left a mixed impression. He was somewhat disappointing at the Australian Open, without really giving off a sense of dominance or consistency. On top of that, he hasn’t played since Melbourne, which adds uncertainty about his match rhythm and his actual level at this point in time.

Given these conditions, even if a win for the Russian seems logical, the context calls for caution. Rublev is by far the favorite, but there are no immediate guarantees about his form, and the associated odds don’t really compensate for that risk.