The Belgian glass ceiling

The 21-year-old American is experiencing a mixed start to the 2026 season. While she shone at Roland-Garros last year, her recent performances at the Australian Open (quarter-final loss to Svitolina) and her early exit in Doha against Elisabetta Cocciaretto have raised some doubts. Coached by Gavin MacMillan since 2025, she is trying to stabilize a serve that remains her Achilles' heel (already 26 double faults this season). That being said, I liked what she showed against Kalinskaya today, managing the match well despite being down in the second set. As usual, her athleticism and exceptional court coverage compensated for a very average serve.

Elise Mertens is in scintillating form. She arrives on a roll after two swift victories in Dubai against Marie Bouzková (6-2, 6-2) and Emma Navarro (6-2, 6-2). Although she stumbled against Elena Rybakina in Melbourne, her consistency from the baseline and the quality of her serve (66.2% first serves) make her an extremely difficult opponent to overcome on the fast courts of the Gulf.

Now, will that be enough against a top 5 team with incredible depth? I doubt it. Her stats against top 10 teams are practically nonexistent, and it's a real glass ceiling that's impacting her mindset. If Coco plays better, there will be very little room for the Belgian.