Rublev confident against an Alcaraz who’s still being pushed around

A more open clash than it seems in Doha

Andrey Rublev comes into this semifinal after playing an excellent match, driven by a particularly effective forehand. Very aggressive right from the first strokes, the Russian managed to dictate the rallies, take the ball early, and impose a high tempo. This is exactly the kind of game where he is at his most dangerous, and this week in Doha, it really feels like we’re seeing one of his best recent versions, both in terms of intensity and shot quality.

Across the net, Alcaraz once again had a complicated match against Khachanov. Even though his level of play was clearly there in phases, this encounter confirms that his tournament has been more laborious than usual. The Spaniard isn’t in major trouble, but he’s struggling to string together fully controlled matches, with more uneven stretches and moments where he lets his opponent settle into the contest.

Historically, Rublev is a player who has often caused problems for Alcaraz. Despite an overall unfavorable record, their meetings have regularly been tightly contested, and that was once again the case in their last clash in the summer of 2025, where the Russian managed to seriously unsettle him with his power and constant initiative-taking. His very direct, non-stop style limits Alcaraz’s variety and forces him to play under pressure.

In the current context, with a very solid Rublev since the start of the tournament and an Alcaraz who hasn’t yet fully hit his stride, it’s reasonable to expect strong resistance from the Russian. Even if the Spaniard remains the favorite thanks to his talent and his ability to make the difference in key moments, the gap doesn’t seem that big.