Is Shapo back?

Confidence restored for Shapovalov against a Spaniard still finding his rhythm

Shapovalov has clearly been sending positive signals recently with an excellent tournament in Dallas. He looked freer there, more consistent in terms of intensity, and above all capable of stringing together good matches against solid opposition. In the same vein, his choice to travel all the way to Dubai seems very smart: the fast conditions and relatively low bounce suit his aggressive game perfectly, which is based on taking the ball early and shortening the rallies.

So we can reasonably expect to see a good version of Shapovalov this week. Obviously, with him, everything always needs to be qualified: his inconsistency is still a major factor, and he’s never completely safe from a sudden dip. But the overall context still seems favorable, both in terms of feel and playing conditions.

On the other side of the net, Carreno is showing slight improvement. He’s managed to come through qualifying two weeks in a row, proof that he’s gradually finding some rhythm again after a long, difficult spell. It’s still fairly limited in terms of real benchmarks, though, and above all, Dubai doesn’t really match his ideal conditions. Carreño Busta generally prefers slower surfaces, where he can settle into rallies, defend, and wear his opponents down.

In this specific context, the Spaniard is likely to give Shapovalov a lot of time to get set, take the initiative, and dictate play, which is never a good idea against a player this explosive when he’s confident.