Khachanov is ramping up

Caution is essential despite a context that favors the Russian in Dubai

In Doha, after a rather sluggish first round against Mochizuki, Khachanov clearly raised his level of play. We notably saw him deliver a very big match against Alcaraz, with intensity, shot quality, and physical solidity much closer to his usual standards. That match may have served as a trigger, and everything suggests the Russian is gaining momentum as the matches go by. Paradoxically, the ATP Dubai tournament has never really suited him. Khachanov has only reached the quarterfinals there once, which is quite modest for a player of his caliber. Despite this, his current level and recent dynamics suggest we can expect a solid and serious version of him in this match.

On the other side, Shevchenko enters the main draw as a lucky loser, after his defeat in the final qualifying round against Quentin Halys, a match in which he didn’t manage to earn a single break point.

The Kazakh is a player capable of putting together some great stretches, but he remains extremely inconsistent. After a good start to the season in Brisbane, he has clearly slowed down in 2026, with more muddled performances and a lack of consistency in intensity and quality of play.

Khachanov’s odds are logically quite low, and we shouldn’t forget that this is a match played in conditions that are still new for him this week. That naturally calls for a bit of caution. Nevertheless, it’s hard to imagine Shevchenko being able to pull off a real upset here, given how large the gap in reliability and quality seems to be.