Big caveats

I’m not talking about Jarry’s legs, but rather the tongs we’re going to have to use to imagine this match

Jarry is back playing at home and you’re going to need a lot of inspiration to predict what’s going to happen. Only three matches this season, no wins, just one set taken. His last match was in Rio against Faria and it went to three sets; you could say that’s a positive sign given the Portuguese player’s run afterwards, but apart from that there’s really not much to hold on to. We left Jarry last year after an extremely empty season; he hasn’t won a match since Wimbledon!! Small elbow problems, lack of motivation, the Chilean is in a big spell of doubt and he’s going to have to get the machine going again. What better than a home tournament for that? This time he’ll be motivated and fully committed, no doubt about that, but I don’t think he’s going to find his best tennis overnight. In his first round he faces the qualifier Prizmic.

The 20-year-old Croat comes through qualifying with two nice wins over Heide and Dellien. He had already made it through qualies last week in Rio before losing to Passaro in a match where he ran into an Italian playing out of his skin, so there’s not much he can really blame himself for. Little by little he’s finding his rhythm and becoming consistent; no big breakthrough yet, but he’s working well and this first round looks like a great opportunity for him against a player who’s lacking reference points. The match-up is special against Jarry: points are short, he’ll just need to be solid and make him crack. When you look at Jarry in Santiago, there’s a title in 2023 but the rest of the time he loses in the first round (or the second); his 2023 season was the best of his career, so I really don’t think we can lean on that title as a real argument.

The dynamics favor Prizmic: he’s moving well and Jarry has been bad for months, no regrets about laying him here.