Everything moves fast in tennis

Carabelli was coming in with a title in Rosario and then a quarterfinal in Buenos Aires, while Hanfmann went out early in Rio; in just a few days everything already seems to have flipped, and it's the German who is now the favorite!

Two main reasons can explain this change of favorite: the first is obviously Carabelli’s “injury” in Rio – his thigh issue flared up again and he played 80% of the match while being diminished. I can’t be certain it was exactly the same injury as last year, but it sure looks like it, and we remember how he insisted on playing despite not being at 100%. There’s a good chance he’ll come play this tournament without being fully recovered yet again. The second reason is the playing conditions: we’re on Hanfmann’s favorite type of court, clay at altitude! The German is a beast in this kind of tournament and he’s just given Lajovic a bit of a spanking to start. Huge kick, heavy forehand, net play – he’s a dangerous guy on this type of clay, quite the opposite of Carabelli, who said before Rio that what he likes is when the game isn’t too fast and the balls don’t fly around too much.

So we have doubts about his physical condition and conditions that don’t suit his game, while on the other side Hanfmann already has a good first round in his legs and loves altitude. Seeing him as the underdog would have been great value, so it’s only logical to see him as the favorite. Is he enough of a favorite already, or can we still go for it?