Jakub's on a roll!

Until when?

Maintaining a high level and stringing together wins over several weeks is always a tricky task, especially for a player with sometimes fragile physical condition like Mensik. In Dubai, however, he perfectly managed his opening match, beating Hubert Hurkacz. It was a victory built on an absolutely exceptional serve: Mensik won 97% of points behind his first serve and did not face a single break point, proof of a very high level of focus and efficiency.

This success, however, raises the question of his ability to back it up. Last year, in his only appearance in Dubai, he was forced to retire in the second round after having given a lot the previous week in Doha. This season, the scenario is similar: Mensik is coming off another very intense week, with several long and significant matches, including a standout victory against Jannik Sinner. It remains to be seen whether he has stepped up physically, but the early signs he’s showing in Dubai are clearly positive.

On the other side of the net, Alexei Popyrin comes in with a much more fragile momentum. His start to the season has been very complicated, marked by a long losing streak. The Middle East swing allowed him to catch his breath a bit, with a first win in Doha against a very manageable opponent, then a tougher victory here in Dubai against Kamil Majchrzak after dropping the first set. This is still not enough, however, to dispel all doubts about his current level.

Popyrin knows Dubai well, having spent part of his childhood there, but his results in this tournament remain modest. In seven appearances, he has never done better than a second round. Moreover, the head‑to‑head record does not work in his favor: Mensik leads 2–0, with two wins earned in 2024, at a time when he was still less experienced than he is today, against a Popyrin who was then in much better form. Given the current momentum, Mensik clearly appears to be on top. He has won 11 of his 12 matches on the main tour this season and is closing in on a very solid streak of consecutive quarterfinals. Popyrin, for his part, has not strung together two wins on the ATP Tour for several months and continues to struggle badly against top‑20 players.