Another shock again

After a very fine victory over Tsitsipas, another big challenge stands in front of our Frenchman.

Rublev got his tournament off to a perfect start, even if it wasn’t all smooth sailing. Against Valentin Royer, the Russian let several opportunities slip away in the second set, but the most encouraging sign lies elsewhere: Rublev stayed calm, focused, and didn’t fall into the bouts of frustration that have sometimes weighed down his matches in the past. His 6-3, 6-4 win is in line with a generally very solid Middle East swing.

Apart from his surprise loss last year when he was well ahead against Quentin Halys, Rublev has shown remarkable consistency in Dubai. In his other appearances, he has always reached at least the quarterfinals, with a title in 2022 as the high point. Last week in Doha, he also confirmed his excellent level by reaching the semifinals without dropping a set, before logically losing to Carlos Alcaraz. The fast conditions suit him perfectly and highlight his forehand intensity and his ability to dictate rallies.

Humbert also comes in with positive signs, even if his recent run has been more up and down. Clearly beaten by Fabian Marozsan in the first round in Doha, he probably paid the price for the quick turnaround after his excellent week in Rotterdam. This time, the Frenchman benefited from real recovery time and responded impressively by dominating Stefanos Tsitsipas, the defending champion, in a match-up that suits him perfectly.

Against Rublev, the head-to-head clearly tilts in favor of the Russian, who leads 4–2 in their meetings and won very comfortably in their last clash in Shanghai in 2023.

In terms of momentum, Rublev remains extremely reliable against players outside the top 20, with ten wins in his last eleven matches in that kind of scenario. Humbert, for his part, has shown a more mixed record against the world’s elite in recent months, despite some encouraging results at the start of the season.

In these conditions, even though Humbert remains dangerous and capable of very aggressive stretches, Rublev currently offers more guarantees over the course of a full match and in his ability to handle the key moments.