The Jenson puzzle
A duel that could drag on for a long time
Medvedev started the season at full throttle with a title in Brisbane and a second week at the Australian Open, before slightly losing momentum. In Dubai, however, he seems to have found some stability again, chaining together two straight-sets wins against Juncheng Shang and then Stan Wawrinka. Without being dazzling, the Russian has been serious, disciplined, and dominant in the key moments. He is still trying to win back the ground he has lost in recent months, and things do seem to be improving. He can see in this very open draw an ideal opportunity. His experience in big events and his strong record in Dubai clearly work in his favor.
On the other side, Brooksby comes in with a clean but contextualized run. He took advantage of a diminished Zizou Bergs and then a struggling Karen Khachanov to reach the quarterfinals without dropping a set. The American, who has come a long way after his suspension, has made a spectacular climb in the rankings, re-entering the top 50 after having fallen outside the top 900. However, his results against top-20 players remain generally poor.
Their only meeting, in Miami in 2022, went heavily in Medvedev’s favor. But the context is different today. Brooksby is more mature, mentally stronger, and above all capable of posing specific problems for the Russian.
Because Brooksby’s style can bother Medvedev. The American loves to break up the rhythm, vary the heights of the ball, and lengthen rallies. He excels at the art of frustrating his opponents, knocking them out of their tempo and forcing them to overhit. On a fast court, Medvedev still has a structural edge thanks to his serve quality and his ability to accelerate on the counter, but he might need some time to find the solutions.
