Strong play from Rublo!

Experience and consistency against a tenacious outsider in Dubai

After a complicated month of January, marked by a lack of confidence and results below his usual standards, Rublev seems to have found his rhythm in February. Conditions in the Middle East traditionally suit him well, and he proved it again by reaching the semifinals in Doha, only losing to world number one Carlos Alcaraz. This week in Dubai, he has confirmed this upswing and now finds himself one win away from another semifinal, which would be a first for him in two consecutive weeks since 2023.

Already very familiar with the venue, Rublev is playing his sixth quarterfinal in Dubai, with an excellent record of 4 wins for just 1 loss at this stage. The early exit of Jack Draper has also cleared his path, offering him on paper a more manageable opponent. Solid from the baseline, very effective on serve, and much calmer in his demeanor than in the past, the Russian heads into this match with genuine assurances.

On the other side of the net, Rinderknech continues an interesting run despite a generally more inconsistent period. For several months now, the Frenchman has shown a real ability to raise his game against top-20 players. In Dubai, he confirmed this trend by knocking out Jack Draper in three sets, thus earning his first quarterfinal of the season. This result is reminiscent of his excellent run in Shanghai last October, where he strung together six wins before losing in the final. Since then, backing it up has been more complicated, with increased pressure linked to his new status and difficulties in stringing together good results. While he remains dangerous in a one-off match, notably thanks to his serve and his ability to play with freedom, his lack of consistency over time is still a handicap against a player of Rublev’s caliber.

The head-to-head record is unequivocal from a statistical standpoint: Rublev leads 3–0. Yet these matches have often been closely contested, as illustrated by their five-set battle at the 2024 US Open. Rinderknech therefore knows how to trouble the Russian, but has never found the solution to finish the job.