10th of the name

After Medvedev’s 7–0, a 3rd in a row for FAA?

After a disappointing month of January, marked by a lack of rhythm and imperfect preparation, Auger-Aliassime completely turned things around in February. His current level is reminiscent of what he showed in the second half of last season, a period during which he found great consistency again, re-entered the top 10 and reached the best ranking of his career. The Canadian kicked off this positive run with a title in Montpellier, before following it up with a very solid final in Rotterdam. Arriving in Dubai under the pressure of defending his finalist points, he rose to the occasion perfectly, reaching the final without dropping a single set and showing impressive consistency both on serve and in the intensity of the rallies.

On the other side, Medvedev also seems to have rediscovered his feelings after a patchy start to the season. His performances in Dubai are very convincing on paper, with three swift wins over Shang, Wawrinka and Brooksby, never conceding more than three games per set. But I put his run a bit into perspective because Shang and Brooksby were not at 100% and Wawrinka was having an off day; he’s really had very soft opposition up to this point.

The head-to-head record still largely favours the Russian, but recent momentum tells a different story. Auger-Aliassime has won their last two meetings, in Paris-Bercy and then in Doha, showing that he has found tactical solutions to disrupt Medvedev’s very specific style of play. The Canadian comes into this semi-final with greater mental freshness, maximum confidence and a genuine ability to maintain a high level over time, which could make the difference in a potentially long and demanding match.