Rublev faces the Griekspoor test

The Russian has the edge in terms of momentum, but a long match still looks very plausible

The semifinal betweenAndrey RublevandTallon Griekspoorin Dubai fits perfectly with the logic of this Middle East swing, which often favors players capable of imposing a high tempo and great intensity from the baseline.

The Middle East has once again served as a trigger for Rublev. After a difficult start to the season and a lack of confidence, Doha marked a real turning point with a very high-level semifinal, notably against Carlos Alcaraz in what is undoubtedly still his best performance of the year. This momentum has carried over to Dubai, where he has once again reached the last four, benefiting from a more open draw but, above all, showing renewed consistency and solidity in his baseline game. Historically, Dubai is one of his reference tournaments: four consecutive semifinals between 2021 and 2024, two finals and a title in 2022, which has greatly contributed to building his reputation as an ATP 500 specialist.

On the other side of the net, Griekspoor comes in with a very interesting dynamic. After eight difficult months, marked as much by a lack of results as by openly acknowledged mental struggles, the Dutchman finally seems to be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. His run in Dubai is particularly convincing, with two prestigious wins over Alexander Bublik and then Jakub Mensik, both members of the top 20. Reaching the semifinals here allows him to defend last year’s points and confirms that he is gradually getting back to a level of play consistent with his potential. This week, he has shown that he is capable of sustaining high intensity, serving at a very good level and hanging in mentally during key moments—qualities that are essential if he wants to compete with Rublev.

The head-to-head clearly favors the Russian, who leads 3–0, even if two of those matches were tightly contested over the distance. So far, Rublev has always managed to control this matchup, but Griekspoor’s current form suggests that he is better equipped than in the past to make this a genuinely competitive match. The Dutchman has already proven that he can trouble top-20 players, and his current confidence could help him push the Russian for long stretches.