Ready to wrap up his demonstration in Dubai

Displayed superiority all week and physical uncertainties on Griekspoor’s side

The ATP Dubai final pits Daniil Medvedev against Tallon Griekspoor, with a clear theoretical and momentum edge for the Russian given what he’s shown since the start of the week.

For nearly two years, Medvedev has at times given the impression of having lost half a step, with his patterns becoming more predictable and his confidence less steady. Yet his Dubai campaign is a reminder that he remains an absolute benchmark on hard courts when he recovers his precision and tactical discipline. He has dominated the tournament to reach the final without losing a single set, never conceding more than four games in any set. His commanding semifinal against Felix Auger-Aliassime, who was in great form and a finalist here last year, made a strong impression with his complete control.

For Medvedev, this final represents much more than a simple ATP 500 title. He has already won a trophy this season, and lifting the one in Dubai would allow him to claim multiple titles in the same year for the first time since 2023. He would also have the chance to secure a second crown in the same city, a rarity in his career despite his more than twenty titles, all earned in different cities until now.

On the other side of the net, Griekspoor pulled off a notable feat in the semifinal against Andrey Rublev. He stunned the Russian by taking the first set, but the match was marked by a medical timeout and clear signs of physical discomfort. The Dutchman himself admitted that he could barely walk after the first set and that a slightly different scenario might have forced him to retire. These comments cast serious doubt on his physical condition ahead of the final.

Even at 100%, Griekspoor has not shown the same level of dominance this week as Medvedev. He’s had to fight harder, rely on key moments, and benefit from some success in tiebreaks. But against a Medvedev this solid, disciplined, and consistent, the margin for error will be extremely small.

Their only previous meeting in Dubai last year turned, to everyone’s surprise, in favor of Griekspoor, but the context is very different this time. Medvedev seems fully in control, mentally and tactically, while the Dutchman comes in with physical question marks and is playing his first final against a top-20 opponent.