Outperformance of Birell?

The market sees the American as the home favorite to reach the final. Contextually, she chose to bring in a very specific coach while a WTA investigation is ongoing: Rafael Font de Mora is suspected of inappropriate behavior and serious ethical breaches with players in the past. That said, Peyton stands by him, saying he’s been her mentor since the beginning and that she fully trusts him. And it looks like it’s working! She’s had a good start to the season with a very aggressive forehand and serve. She’s from Texas, pretty much an idol here, and admitted in her post-match interview after playing Selekhmeteva that she knows it’s only a 250, but that it’s ‘her own Grand Slam’! You can feel the determination and the need to go after this title as much in her words as in her tennis!

Kimberley Birell is, I think, playing her best tennis ever here in Austin! I’m impressed by the solidity and dominance she’s showing in every match. She’s completely contradicting her 2026 stats and making it very hard to read her as a player. For me, she’s in a momentum where all the planets are aligned and she’s fully capitalizing on that dynamic. I still believe she’s overperforming, so it’s very hard to know when things will go back to normal. On top of that, she played a Tomljanovic at 50%, completely worn out by the Austin organizers who gave her the worst possible scheduling.

A match-up between a girl who’s been winning a lot here since her junior days, with a wild crowd behind her, and a player who seems untouchable this week. An aggressive server who likes to finish points quickly against a very complete baseliner whose adjusted stats usually show a big weakness against this type of player. This match is a real headache given what’s at stake with a spot in the final on the line.