The anomaly

Brooksby is unusual; his game can break down and throw a lot of players off on the court.

Khachanov's comments after his loss to Brooksby summed up the American’s game pretty well: "he gets a lot of balls back, plays weird trajectories, it’s strange." A good Brooksby is a real pain, especially for a guy like Popyrin who plays pretty basic tennis, if I can put it that way. This will be their first meeting, and when I picture how the match might go, I see Popyrin on top in the early exchanges with his serve and forehand, but if he doesn’t make the difference quickly, he’s going to get stuck in baseline rallies and get worked around by the American.

Brooksby is generally solid in this tournament, every time he’s tough to beat and pulls off good wins, it makes you want to trust him. Popyrin comes in with improving form without being at his peak yet, and on a relatively slow court I don’t necessarily see him being comfortable (the slow conditions aren’t dramatic in themselves, but it’s the slowness against a profile like Brooksby’s that worries me). Slight edge in form and conditions/matchup for Brooksby then. On the negative side, I’d say his last match in Dubai was completely awful, and even his opponent wondered if he wasn’t injured in the shoulder... The second warning is Popyrin’s level in Masters 1000s; who knows why, but he finds form again in this kind of tournament, and we can’t deny he’s been a bit better over his last few matches, it has to be said.

With those little warnings but everything else completely on Brooksby’s side, my choice is made...