A surprise here?

Anastasia Potapova, now competing under the Austrian flag, is going through a transitional phase in her game. Although she showed great resilience in the first round here in Indian Wells, her record at this tournament is inconsistent: after a notable quarterfinal run in 2024, she stumbled in the second round in 2025. Her serving efficiency, a statistical strong point she relies on to dictate the rallies, will be put to a severe test against the legendary tenacity of Jasmine Paolini. Anastasia is quite unusual at the moment: she gets overwhelmed quickly, but this is the third time she has needed to be down by a set and a break to react and turn the match around. This need to be backed into a corner has become her strength.

Jasmine Paolini comes into this tournament with impressive consistency in the big events. Used to reaching the round of 16 in the last two editions in 2024 and 2025, after a first-round exit in 2023, the Italian is banking on her incredible returning ability and tactical intelligence, refined alongside Sara Errani. This matchup will hinge on her ability to disrupt the rhythm imposed by Potapova and tilt the balance in her favor on the big points. Pao finally showed some encouraging signs in Merida on a slower surface. She’s still far from her 2025 level and from being a top-7 player.