Limiting beliefs

For the last Indian Wells of his career, of course, we might be seeing Monfils as a little better than he really is?

I might surprise you, but I think Gaël can do something in this match for several reasons. First, I thought he played well in his first match—not perfectly, but he had a good feeling with the ball. He’s hitting powerful forehands a bit more than usual, combined with a good serve, which is a positive sign for Gaël. On top of that, the conditions in Indian Wells suit his game more than Félix’s, especially if external factors like wind make play more complicated, which would level things out even more. As for Félix, I don’t find him as sharp on outdoor hard courts. In 2026, he has mostly proven himself on indoor hard. On outdoor hard, he lost to Bergs at the United Cup and had mixed results in Dubai. He beat Zhang, Péricard, and Lehecka, who wasn’t in great form, and he couldn’t find any solutions against Medvedev, nor in Rotterdam against De Minaur, two players with a “moped/counterpuncher” profile. So there are several factors pointing to a possible upset, depending on the odds. If the risk is already too priced in, I’ll sit this one out.