Not easy...

Ugo’s form changes frequently, and Michelsen has a ceiling level of top 20...

I’m a bit troubled by this match, and the odds reassure me because it’s the kind of match where anything could happen. For me, we’ve got two players who aren’t in their best form on a slow surface. You could say it could have been worse, it could have been clay. They still each have their strengths in these conditions. With very good use of court geometry from the Frenchman, and an American who knows how to weather the storm and be tough in baseline rallies—that’s what he showed in his first round against the clay-courter Merida. Despite the conditions, I think this match depends more on the French player, because even on a slightly slower surface, he’s the one holding the keys with his aggressive, attacking game. But will he be able to sustain that over an entire match? That’s far from certain because something’s missing for me. Ugo’s last two tournaments left me a bit dumbfounded, so I really don’t know what to choose here. The easy bet would be an over on games, or even an over on sets; it makes sense given each player’s strengths and weaknesses, and that’s what I’m going to suggest, without much conviction.