New banger incoming

Between the firecracker Fokina and the powerful Mensik, we can expect a high-level match.

High level but with a bit of an edge for Fokina? The Spaniard leads 4–1 in the H2H, and when he’s really in his match he manages to make Mensik play enough while keeping his errors down. The only time I saw him really struggle was at the Australian Open last year, when he tried to hit winners on every shot before realizing that on the counter he handled this match-up better. The problem with Foki is that he’s driven by his motivation and emotions; he was completely off in Acapulco and started the same way against Svajda (he was down 5–0 in the first set before turning it around). I’m still very unsure about his mental state: yes, it’s a Masters 1000 and he’ll fight more than elsewhere, but I can’t say his first-round match reassured me. It’s Foki, you know.

On the other side we’ve got Mensik, who’s starting an important part of the season for him. Next week he has to defend his title in Miami, so he’d be happy to pick up some points this week to ease the pressure. I’m not too sure how to rate his first-round match: he made a lot of errors and got through in clutch mode thanks to his serve, but Giron also played well and is tricky to face, so it definitely wasn’t an easy first round and you could feel it. On top of that, it’s a complete change in conditions: we’re back to daytime play and tomorrow it’ll be close to 30 degrees, it’s going to be pretty quick and it’s scheduled on a ‘small’ court, Stadium 4. Slight edge to Mensik in these conditions for me, given the quality of his serve. I expect him to be better than in his first round, and mentally much stronger than Foki, who can let go at any moment; his momentum is better too. On the other hand, you’ve got the H2H/possible match-up edge for Foki and above all a very nice price on him...