Revenge?

Cobolli is chaining together Acapulco rematches with Kecmanovic in R1, then Tiafoe now. So far everything is going well for him!

After the semifinalist, it’s now the Acapulco finalist that the Italian faces again in the person of Tiafoe. If you didn’t see that final, to put you back in context, the American Tiafoe was already pretty worn out physically. He gave everything he could, but the Italian was clearly the fresher, more energetic player. He logically came out on top. That final was on February 28, so 8 days ago now. Since then, both men have won a match in Indian Wells. Cobolli played the Serb Kecmanovic again. He got off to a bad start in the first set. He began his match poorly, making errors a bit too quickly and with a serve that wasn’t very effective. Then he put things right. We often have a few doubts about the Italian when it comes to stringing tournaments together, but it’s mostly about his motivation. In a tournament as prestigious as Indian Wells, I think the motivation will be there. In any case, we’ve got a match here, a replay of the Acapulco final that might be a bit more balanced this time in the sense that Tiafoe, the American, will be less physically depleted. He’s had time to recover and he came through a fairly easy first round against a very tired Brooksby. Sometimes you see him like that when he’s out of gas—his game just doesn’t click at all anymore (Brooksby’s, that is). At least, the American Tiafoe didn’t spend too much energy. On top of that, I think he’s gained a bit of confidence. This tournament is of course very important for him as an American. I think we’re potentially going to see a more evenly matched contest between the two players than we did last week. The Italian’s profile isn’t particularly problematic for Tiafoe, except that it will obviously turn into a big baseline battle. My hypothesis is pretty similar to the Acapulco final, meaning that Cobolli has a bit more engine, he’s a bit more athletic, and he puts a bit more heart into it when needed. That’s where Tiafoe seems a bit more limited physically and has to rely more on craftiness, ultra-aggressive returning, drop shots, wrong-footing his opponent, clever shots. I don’t see him winning in the long run in a tough, physically grinding baseline battle. He’s going to have to be a bit more inventive, but in Indian Wells conditions, this might not be the best place for that. So in the end, without having seen the odds yet, I would make Cobolli a slight favorite. I’m expecting a tight match with the Italian coming through in 3 sets.