A match that flopped?

I don't have a good feeling about this match...

To start off his title defense, Draper gave himself a scare against Agut by losing the first set, but once he found his tennis it became way too easy. He's coming back from injury, we really shouldn't forget that; he says his knee is okay and that what he mainly wants is to string matches together and get his rhythm back while still taking care of his body. I often feel like as soon as he returns from injury he’s immediately strong again, and that lost set isn’t going to make me think otherwise—especially when you see how well Bautista played on his side too. Now that this first round is out of the way, he can step it up and he’s facing a player he’s never beaten in two meetings: Cerundolo. The Argentine beat him on clay 3 years ago and in the Davis Cup in 2024; we still didn’t have the prime version of Draper back then, and when I look at his progress over the last few years, he’s just not the same player anymore. Even though Cerundolo is a head-hunter, he’s also a guy who can completely lose the plot, as shown in his first-round match where he tightened up/got frustrated while he was ahead and ended up coming very close to losing. Way too many double faults, an erratic forehand, and above all a shaky mentality. As I said before his match, he’s coming in after two disappointing tournaments and I can’t say he reassured me at all.

I still have to be wary of Draper’s rhythm, which isn’t at its best yet, but otherwise I like the match-up for him on hard and the conditions too, especially with a fairly average Cerundolo. This match is on Draper’s racket; with a more stable mentality as well, he gives me a few guarantees that I just don’t have with Cerundolo.