Big Foe is going to have to really elevate his game.

Zverev leads the head-to-head 8–1, are we allowed to believe or is it basically dead?

It’s hard to believe BUT Tiafoe is playing his best tennis again, and we know that during the US swing he’s capable of anything! I have to say his start to the tournament has been perfect, he smothered Brooksby and Cobolli, I thought he was super strong in every area. He’s confident and allows himself to try really tough stuff on the return on second serves and it’s working pretty well. He has to keep that aggressive mindset on return against Zverev, but how can he if the German is still serving over 75% first serves? That’s the huge problem Tiafoe is facing: he’s a weak returner by nature and he’s up against one of the best servers in the world. Zverev isn’t particularly good in rallies either, I thought Nakashima was better in the last round, but the German hides behind the quality of his serve, the rest was disastrous.

He tries to be more aggressive in some matches when he’s in control, but as soon as he’s under a bit of pressure he just pushes the ball and his level drops instantly. I see Tiafoe as more than capable of competing from the baseline, but Z’s serve can just wipe out the points on his service games, and then Tiafoe might mess up one service game or a tiebreak and boom, match lost – that’s the harsh law of Zverev. He leads Tiafoe 8–1 but has dropped a few sets; it’s really not a given that he wins cleanly, especially if Tiafoe manages to catch fire, because after all he’s playing great again and loves this type of tournament.

There’s no way I can bet on Zverev at 1.35 given how awful his level was outside of the serve in the last match, but do we really feel like taking Tiafoe either?