Them again! Let’s take a look at this together...

Aryna Sabalenka reaches the final without having dropped a single set, capping her run with an authoritative win over Linda Nosková. On the other side of the net, Elena Rybakina had to battle hard to get past Elina Svitolina, stretching her record streak to twelve consecutive wins against top-10 opponents. The head-to-head tilts slightly in favor of the Belarusian with eight wins to seven, but the Kazakh is coming off two straight final victories against her this season. The wind will be the key factor this afternoon in the desert, with gusts forecast at 21 km/h, conditions that have often disrupted Aryna Sabalenka’s ball toss in the past. As for recent history here, Elena Rybakina lifted the trophy in 2023 before a withdrawal in 2024 and a round of 16 in 2025, while Aryna Sabalenka suffered two final defeats in 2023 and 2025, in addition to a round of 16 exit in 2024.

The win probabilities stand at 59.9% for Aryna Sabalenka versus 42.4% for her rival. This week’s numbers put the world number 1 in a remarkably strong position with a dominance ratio of 2.281 and an overall efficiency of 7.014. Her ability to erase break points is her best weapon, with an 84% success rate in this high‑pressure area. Elena Rybakina shows more modest statistics with a ratio of 1.121, but she survives thanks to ice‑cold efficiency on return. She converts 82% of her break points, a success rate that will put serious pressure on her opponent’s second serve. The Kazakh has been less prolific on serve this week with 0.49 aces per game compared to 0.69 for the Belarusian. Both hit very few double faults and know they will have to serve in “prime” mode, because second serves will be the ultimate decider of the match. On that front, the Kazakh “Queen” seems just a touch more clutch.

The market also seems to doubt Elena Rybakina’s ability to repeat her Melbourne feat, with her odds drifting from 2.28 to 2.36 in just a few hours. This price movement suggests growing public confidence in Aryna Sabalenka despite her history of mental block in the Californian final. Yet Rybakina’s psychological edge on pressure points could turn this match into a tactical trap if she manages to harness the gusts of wind to force unforced errors from her opponent.

The world number 1 will be the one under pressure. Sixteenth meeting between the two, with a slight edge for Sabalenka at 8 wins, but the “Queen” has taken their last two finals (at the Finals and the AO). Sabalenka even pointed it out in an interview: “I’m sick of losing these big finals” and “I don’t remember anything from the 2023 final here, apart from my double fault on set point, after that it’s just a blackout.” She thus admitted to a kind of psychological trauma against Elena Rybakina in the key moments.

Pushing the argument further, Lena leads 4–1 in finals! That’s starting to become a lot, especially since Rybakina beat Sabalenka right here, for the title, in 2023. But let’s go even further: since the start of 2025, Sabalenka has played 11 finals and lost 6 of them, including 4 in Grand Slams! That’s where it gets interesting: we can start talking about a glass ceiling for the “number one.” She’s shaking, and her mindset is taking a hit. Sabalenka might try to force destiny and her game against a true ice queen.

Finally, there’s the points race. Rybakina has just dethroned Iga from the world number 2 spot, but her stated goal is clearly to become number 1! 3,000 points separate them, and that gap is likely to shrink today. Extra pressure for the Belarusian, especially since in the “PIF race,” the Kazakh is way out in front.