Will the Russian get her serve back?

Emiliana Arango (WTA 109) comes into this tournament in a poor run of form with only 1 win and 7 losses in 2026. The Colombian, who recently suffered a shoulder injury, is struggling to rediscover the consistency that took her into the top 80 last year. On the other side of the net, Oksana Selekhmeteva (WTA 71) is on an opposite trajectory: she reached her career-high ranking thanks to a quarterfinal in Austin and a third round at the Australian Open. Although she lost in her opening match at Indian Wells against Birrell, her aggressive left-handed game has been far more effective on outdoor hard courts at the start of this season.

The match-up is defined by growing vulnerability on serve from the Russian in her recent outings. Over her last three matches (against Birrell, Yuan and Kraus), Selekhmeteva has produced a worrying total of 14 double faults and has won only 61% of her service games, far off her usual standards. This weakness on serve opens a real door for Arango, who is an excellent returner capable of extending rallies. If the Colombian manages to exploit those shaky second serves, she has the tactical tools to seriously trouble the Russian and potentially steal a set from her, despite her lack of recent wins.