Fonseca top 5?

The Brazilian is on fire, coming off a 7–6 7–6 loss to the hard-court king Jannik Sinner, and he’ll have the support of an entire continent in Miami. Good luck Fabian!

Lol, I think the intro says it all, guys... On top of that, the Hungarian is coming off 3 straight losses against 3 guys on fire (Rublev in Doha was playing at 20,000, Rinderknech in Dubai was monstrous, and Agut in IW was playing super well). Really no luck for Fabian. Joao Fonseca loves playing for his home crowd as he said himself, and right now he must be in a killer mindset after going toe to toe with Jannik Sinner. And as if that wasn’t enough, if he wins he’ll play Carlito. That’s a lot to take in if you’re trying to make a case for a likely Marozsan win here. Everything points toward maximum motivation for the Brazilian. On top of that, Fabian’s game is far from the worst matchup for Joao. The boom boom game, he knows how to handle that. Then there are Fabian’s delicious drop shots, with the Brazilian’s movement still having room for improvement. But the big problem is that Fabian very rarely plays matches without a dip in level or intensity. It’s structural with him. His game is inherently risky. And on top of that, he’s not really a Davis Cup type player for example, so this Latin-style frenzy on court could end up annoying him more than anything. If anyone here thinks Fabian is value, I’d love to hear from you in the comments!

I’m doing this analysis early and I have no idea about the odds. I think Joao will, as usual, be very much liked by the bookies and open around 1.4.