A Floridian in Miami

Born in Michigan but arriving in Florida at age 4, then heading to the famous Boca Raton academy, you could say Reilly is from here.

The analyses about our friend Reilly just keep coming and all look pretty similar. With a player of this style, you’re going to look at motivation and form. Both are excellent for the American, even if we’ve seen him play better than he has at Indian Wells this year. Generally speaking—really, generally—this is the kind of game that tends to bother the Portuguese player. The Portuguese, as usual, is having a fairly average post-Australian Open period. The level is there, but his matches aren’t “complete.” He goes missing in the money time, and against Opelka, that’s just not allowed. If I draw a straight line between past matches and this one, I’d say 7–6 7–5 for Opelka, with a break / break-back in the second set. On the other hand, it’s not really a match I’m fond of as a bettor, because the margins are pretty thin. But mathematically, I really get the feeling Reilly comes through 7 times out of 10 in the current conditions...