Mumu is back

38 days have passed since his last official match; what happened?

People online are talking about a "muscle strain", which can mean either a pulled muscle or a tear. Given the recovery time, I’d lean more towards a pulled muscle. I think I saw that he went to South America to play Rio as well, so clearly not a tear. And then probably a comeback that was a bit too early in Rio. With the European season coming up, spring, the clay, of course Mumu will only come back if he’s 100% physically. On the other hand, he will have been away from the courts, and especially from competition. And he’s a player who needs confidence. His game is based on great counterpunching quality, not natural power. He "grinds", as we like to say at Tennis Metrics. And to do that, and believe me I know this style well ;), he needs to get his rhythm and match play back. He’s a pro, it’s not going to take him too long, especially since he had found his rhythm again at the end of the Australian swing. But for a first match, I’m fairly pessimistic. He has already shown plenty of stretches where he was just missing that little something and he chained loss after loss, until he found his grinder mentality again.

On the other side, you’ve got Berrettini, who also takes good care of his body. He’s not following up with any Challenger after IW, and I think he’s right. I loved his match against Mannarino at IW, a match in which he showed enormous resilience. I think he looks good, and the Miami conditions might suit him even more with his serve +1 in quick conditions. He even beat ADM there last year, by the way!

So a match-up and a current form that favor the Italian, but at what odds?