The perfect trap

Easy match, right? Arnaldi just took a 6/0 6/1 beating in IW and seems out of form, so we lay him?

If only it were that simple... Yes, Arnaldi was completely out of shape and the score was incredibly harsh, but there was also a great, very clinical McDonald on the other side. I don’t want to take the easy route and say we should blindly lay Arnaldi again. He leads 2–0 against Shevchenko and he always plays well in Miami, it’s a hard court that really suits him, so I’m expecting a better match from him. Still big doubts about his physical condition though, that damn ankle injury has been bothering him for months and he just can’t shake it off. I’m not saying we should downplay the 6–0 6–1 he took last week, far from it, but we do need to think it through properly.

To bet on him after that spanking, you really need some strong arguments. The match‑up is rather good for him, he’s 2–0 up in the H2H against Shevchenko with straightforward scores, but that was in Challengers a few years ago when he was on fire; his form is nothing like that now. Shevchenko has been playing really well again for a few matches, he took a set off Khacha, played an excellent second set against Ruud, and just pushed Quinn in Phoenix before the American went on to win the title. I love big tournaments for him, he’s super motivated and often plays his best tennis there, there are quite a few solid things you can give him, anyway! Arnaldi at 100% and in rhythm is still a much better player than Shevy, but that’s not the case right now; we have to see if the Italian is good enough in this match despite all the question marks.

As I said at the start, it’s far from as easy as people think, but there are so many things pointing towards Shevchenko while we’re really lacking positive arguments on Arnaldi’s side. I think we’ll have to go for him, but not at just any odds!