The derby of the circuit’s madmen

This match could go in any direction with these two champions

Mentally we've got something heavy going on in this match! Two players capable of the very best and the very worst! VDZ had a great tournament in Rotterdam playing like steel and then what? Loss to Carreno and JM Cerundolo, so typical VDZ. To top it off he pulled out of Cap Cana as well, no info on why but with him it could just be laziness so I wouldn’t read too much into it. I’m still left with a very bad impression from the match vs JM Cerundolo though, that match was catastrophic and one of the worst of his career (his own words!), I’m torn between laying him because he does anything and everything, or backing him because with him every match is different.

Shapo gives me a tiny bit more certainty and just writing that feels weird, but hey! He played well in Dallas but then he also got spanked by Carreno by doing whatever nonsense, his scheduling choices were strange so same thing, I don’t really want to hold it too much against him because he bounced back nicely in Indian Wells with two good wins. In 7 appearances in Miami he’s only lost once in the first round, which I think is an extremely important stat given how inconsistent he is. He also has a semifinal at this tournament in 2019, and the fast conditions are obviously very good for him. The H2H is 1–1 but I don’t want to rely on that because Shapo and VDZ are streaky players and you’d need to put those matches back into context.

Shapo makes me lean his way a bit more, while still being aware that we’re talking about Shapo here, but I’m thinking Miami is good for him, both on and off the court, and that there’s a good chance we see a good version of Shapo, whereas with VDZ I’m really not convinced he’s going to show up at all.